Bitcoin Cointime Price Models

Understanding the Cointime Price Models

The Cointime Price Models chart plots four reference prices that adjust Bitcoin's value for how long coins have sat unspent. They are model-derived benchmarks, not traded prices, and they are shown beside Bitcoin price.

How It Works

Active price is the realized price divided by liveliness, which raises the realized price when little accumulated holding time has been consumed. Vaulted price is the realized price divided by 1 minus liveliness, which raises it as more holding time has been consumed. True market mean is investor capitalization divided by active supply, where active supply is circulating supply multiplied by liveliness. The cointime price is the existing cointime reference price from the Cointime Supply chart.

How to Read It

Read each line as a model level, not as a forecast. The gap between Bitcoin price and a line shows how far the market sits from that model's estimate of value.